Dr Colm Henry was on Morning Ireland to give an update on the strain on the healthcare system due to Covid-19, in particular ICU beds and the cancellation of procedures | Read more:
This phase of the pandemic is more complicated than previous ones. The Government and NPHET have been trying to lift restrictions, even as the models indicate that case numbers were expected to rise.
With all that in mind, NPHET decided to recommend that nightclubs could reopen, believing that a greater adherence to the transmission-prevention practices could actually cause a dip in cases by mid-November, after a plateau of around 3,000 per day. Today, the Department of Health reported 3,726 cases. While that's higher than the scenarios in NPHET's models, the data is very noisy. The five-day average, for instance, is 2,807. The seven-day average is 2,610. Until the past few days, we have been broadly tracking the modelled scenario – albeit about one week late.
A second key question is: if we don't start to see a dip in case numbers, or do see a consistent increase in hospitalisations, how long will NPHET and the Government wait before they act?On those questions, a couple of things will be worth watching over the coming week.
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