Analysts often point to this year’s rout in stocks as evidence that a recession already has been “priced in,” frequently without pinpointing what that entails.
That’s a key question on the minds of investors as the Federal Reserve works to dramatically raise interest rates in a bid to stamp out painfully high levels of inflation, a quest Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned in August could hurt households and businesses.
“Of course, equities have already gone some way to pricing in a recession, and we think that this should limit the extent of further losses,” Daniel Grosvenor, director of global equity strategy at Oxford Economics, wrote in a Wednesday note. “Everyone can cherry-pick the data to confirm their prior beliefs, and investors are left ‘in the waiting place,’ wondering if the recession is ongoing, already past, or in the future,” said Vincent Deluard, global macro strategist at StoneX, in a client note.
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