The ongoing ceasefire negotiations in Gaza face a significant hurdle: the future role of Hamas. Neither Israel nor the US is willing to accept Hamas's involvement in any postwar administration. This stance reflects Israel's determination to eliminate Hamas's threat and the US's broader regional goals.
Neither Israel nor the US is likely to accept the involvement of any military group in any postwar administration of Gaza . This issue is likely to cause problems next week when negotiations begin on stage two of the ceasefire. The militants are still in charge in Gaza , despite the significant losses inflicted upon Hamas during the recent conflict.
Removing Hamas from power and ensuring the militant group cannot threaten Israel in the future was a key objective when Israel declared war in response to the attack on October 7th, 2023. Despite killing an estimated 20,000 militants, including most of the Hamas leadership and senior commanders, Hamas remains the dominant force in Gaza, controlling much of the humanitarian aid and patrolling the streets.It is difficult to see Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, never mind his far-right coalition partners, agreeing to an end to the war without an arrangement that includes the demilitarization of Gaza, the exile of Hamas leaders, and no Hamas involvement in the postwar administration. On Tuesday, Netanyahu will raise these demands when he meets US President Donald Trump at the White House, as international mediators host talks on the next stage of the ceasefire. Senior administration officials have expressed sympathy with Israel's aim of ending Hamas rule in Gaza, but above all, Trump wants an end to the war and is unlikely to entertain Israeli threats to resume the fighting at the end of phase one of the ceasefire.In an effort to win over Netanyahu, Trump is expected to make an offer that will be hard for any Israeli leader to refuse, including biting sanctions against Iran as a first step to ensuring the Islamic republic cannot obtain a nuclear bomb, normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia, and sanctions against the International Criminal Court, which in November issued an arrest warrant against Netanyahu on war crime charges. Washington views the second and third stages of the ceasefire as part of a larger regional process that will include the entry of a multinational force into Gaza that will prevent Hamas from regaining power, allowing for the entry of additional players who would help finance the reconstruction of the Strip. It is difficult to envision Saudi Arabia, Qatar, or the United Arab Emirates investing the billions of dollars needed to reconstruct Gaza if Hamas remains in power. On the other hand, it is difficult to imagine that Hamas would allow the entry of foreign actors who aim to end its grip on power
HAMAS GAZA ISRAEL US CEASEFIRE POSTWAR ADMINISTRATION INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT
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