When it comes to big infrastructural initiatives there needs to be a decent margin of benefit over cost to make a project worthwhile
In connecting our cities, the motorway system now allows relatively fast bus connections. When I travel from Dublin to Galway or from Belfast to Derry, if I have time I go by rail. However, if I am in a hurry, I take the bus. Unfortunately, as the draft rail strategy makes clear, speeding up the intercity rail system is likely to be hugely expensive. Alternatively, it will seriously affect commuter rail services that use the same tracks and that really do reduce car journeys.
If we want to run hourly trains from Dublin to Belfast, that would mean restricting commuter trains on the line, both at the Dublin and the Belfast end, unless expensive new lines are built to separate the main line from commuter trains. The strategic rail review shows that to substantially increase the speed on the line between Belfast and Dublin we would need a new tunnel under Dublin. That’s in addition to the delayed plans for a metro tunnel and for the Dart underground.
The projects in the new rail plan, at best, would only come on stream from 2040 onwards. By then, we expect that our electricity system will have been almost fully decarbonised and that most road transport will be using clean electricity. From a climate perspective, it won’t matter by then whether people travel by road or by rail.
The rail plan avoids the wider issue about the sustainability of dispersed development. The latest census results show how development has sprawled in commuter counties around Dublin, with growth in commuter mileage. Over the next couple of decades, until we decarbonise, this will raise emissions from transport.
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