Russia is stretching Ukraine’s defences and exploiting its lack of soldiers and arms
’s Kharkiv region this week capitalised on delays and shortcomings in several crucial fields that Kyiv and its western allies must remedy quickly to prevent Kremlin forces making bigger gains in the coming months.
Three fundamental and interconnected Ukrainian weaknesses allowed Russia to have some success in Kharkiv: a lack of fortified defences near the border, a shortage of weapons and ammunition, and too few personnel in the armed forces. Several fortified lines are now in place, but in Kharkiv they could not be built close to the frontier because Russia could easily have targeted the engineering teams with cross-border artillery fire.
It is still unclear when Ukraine will receive F-16 fighter jets from its partners, but they will only go some way to reducing Russia’s aerial advantage – and more air defence systems must be committed to protect the bases that will serve the planes. Since Ukraine’s counteroffensive ended in failure last summer – due in large part to its inability to overcome deep layers of Russian minefields and front-line fortifications in occupied territory – analysts have said this year will be hard for the country as it tries to replenish its own ranks while facing a new offensive by a much bigger enemy.
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