The pressure is on Varadkar to deliver on three fronts and make good on the promise of his political ascent during his second stint as Taoiseach
In a little over a week Varadkar will chair the meeting for the first time. A century on from a bloody Civil War, the two parties forged out of that conflict will perform a smooth handover of power at the halfway point in this Government’s term. The handover is unprecedented in the history of the State, and a rotation that Varadkar has paved the way for. In a speech to the party’s ardfheis three weeks ago, he paid tribute to Martin as a “voice for decency, kindness and good sense”.
Most importantly, Varadkar must juggle the dynamic between the three leaders that has ensured this Government has not at any stage come close to collapse. Martin has been seen as a consensus builder. The question is whether Varadkar can repeat the trick. In Varadkar’s first crisis as Taoiseach, Fitzgerald became embroiled in the fallout from the policing scandals stemming from disclosures made by Garda whistleblower Maurice McCabe. Pressure from Fianna Fáil brought matters to a head.
Some put the lack of new faces in ministerial positions down to Varadkar’s aversion to interpersonal conflict. He finds delivering bad news around a politician’s future difficult. “Purely from the engagement with him, his body language, I could tell he found it quite uncomfortable [and] will try to avoid it,” says one source who Varadkar had to relieve of their office.Tales of Varadkar’s awkwardness in everyday social interactions are legion.
“If you could get Enda Kenny to meet every single person in Ireland he would get an overall majority,” said a source. “If you confined Leo to the telly he does really well, but if he met everyone in Ireland nobody would vote for him.” One such occasion was in October 2020 when Varadkar heavily criticised the State’s then medical officer Dr Tony Holohan in an appearance on the Claire Byrne television programme. Varadkar raged that the Government had been told to shut down for a second time during the Covid-19 pandemic “without prior consultation”. Holohan’s advice caused uproar, but Varadkar’s remarks led to bitter recriminations. “It was a mistake.
Many observers believe Varadkar has moderated and that Martin will pass “the Taoiseach’s mantle to keep the Government together”, says one former minister. “The old Leo, by necessity and circumstance, has been replaced by a new Leo,” says a ministerial colleague. There is also a new appreciation for the people in his circle of trust, his core team of Brian Murphy, press aide Nick Miller and other advisers like Philip O’Callaghan. Although some complain he is too insulated. “They cut him off from the party, the members, the PP and the voters,” one source complains. Critics say he surrounds himself with people who think like him.
During this stint as Taoiseach, Varadkar’s longevity would surpass that of Garret FitzGerald, another Fine Gael leader with an Anglo-Irish achievement. But unlike FitzGerald, Varadkar has not shown he can lead Fine Gael to a successful general election. Prof Murphy says Varadkar does not have it in his gift to change the narrative around Fine Gael’s capacity to fix these deep-seated problems. “He only has two years, and I don’t think it is enough time to make radical changes. The nature of the Government itself – they are in a three-headed Coalition and the two [main] parties have the same Cabinet seat number – means things cannot be changed dramatically.
Far from being a Tory-boy ideologue, critics believe that aside from a long-standing goal of cutting taxes, Varadkar has few central animating ideas to his politics. “The real test for him is: can he emerge…keeping Fine Gael as strong as it is today and maybe making it stronger,” an ally says. “His fight is to keep Fine Gael intact as a political identity, brand and political organisation through this changing time.
There is a long-standing theory that Varadkar may ultimately jump ship, especially if a big European job comes up, but others believe he is keen to stay and prove himself.
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