NOAA has an experimental storm surge forecast which calls for roughly 5-10 feet of surge pushing into the Tampa Bay area, 4-7 feet for Port Charlotte, and 3-5 feet for the Everglades.
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West, Dry Tortugas, Florida Bay, Anclote River southward to the Card Sound Bridge, and Tampa Bay.A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
If the highest surge were to occur during high tide, the water levels would climb quickly. A dangerous combination. Looking ahead, Tampa Bay will see high tide Wednesday night at 5:32 p.m, and 4:25 a.m. Thursday morning. During this time Ian is forecast to be a major hurricane right off the coast. This is why the forecast calls for 5-10 feet of surge.The Florida Keys are forecast to see 4 to 6 inches.The remainder of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 8 inches. Heavy rainfall is expected to affect North Florida, eastern portions of the Florida Panhandle, and portions of the Southeastern U.S. Friday and Saturday.
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