Vladimir Putin “created an elite of ruthless opportunists”. He must “now fear the day when enough of them conclude that the risk of moving against him is outweighed by the danger of leaving him in power”, argues the political scientist
certain karmic justice to the brief mutiny staged in Russia by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenary group. The most serious challenge to Vladimir Putin’s 23-year reign came as a direct result of the way he has structured his regime—and from a man who owed his wealth and power to the president’s patronage. It has starkly highlighted the growing weaknesses of Mr Putin’s system of power, leaving him more vulnerable than ever.
Each of these armies had its own political agenda. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, for example, was eager to claim that his troops were uniquely loyal to Mr Putin, even as he manoeuvred to keep them as far from the fighting as possible, even if that meant countermanding orders from General Gerasimov.
Instead, Mr Putin half-heartedly went along with Mr Shoigu’s subtler countermove, a demand that all mercenaries sign a contract directly with the defence ministry. This would have deprived Wagner of its autonomy and thus Mr Prigozhin of his greatest asset. Faced with a choice of insurrection or emasculation, he mutinied. He did not seek to topple the Russian leader but rather desperately hoped that a show of force would persuade his patron to turn against Mr Shoigu instead.
His legitimacy has been damaged on all three counts. Dubious opinion polls showing sky-high approval ratings notwithstanding, there is clearly dissatisfaction among both the public and the elite. The sight of Mr Prigozhin and his men being applauded as they withdrew from Rostov-on-Don speaks to a recalcitrant population who did not see them as the “traitors” Mr Putin claimed they were.
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