Michael McDowell: We are heading for an election result replete with uncertainty

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Michael McDowell: We are heading for an election result replete with uncertainty
Simon-HarrisEoin-O-BroinGreen-Party
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Election 2024: We may be about to see the consequences of political opportunism, inexperience and immaturity

Was Fine Gael's uncontested leadership vacancy in march a sign of collective party burnout? Was Simon Harris so obvious a choice that nobody saw any alternative? . Photograph: Nick Bradshawwas about the illusory Fine Gael strategy based on a claimed “new energy” and a raft of gimmicky auction politics that ignored our economic vulnerabilities. None of these required the assistance of a crystal ball.

Observers have commented that Harris has faced an uphill battle arising from the departure from political life of half his incumbent TDs. This set me thinking as to precisely why that mass exodus occurred.

Opinion polling in multi-seat proportional representation Ireland can be misleading. Asking people, a sizeable portion of whom will not actually vote on Friday, to choose a political party, rather than among particular candidates known – or unknown – to them, is a little problematical. Being confronted with a ballot paper on which many new names appear is a daunting experience – especially for those who only follow the process at a distance.

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