Mortgage bankers forecast rates to drop to 5.4% in 2023. Here's what that means for home prices.

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Mortgage bankers forecast rates to drop to 5.4% in 2023. Here's what that means for home prices.
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"Our forecast is for home price growth moderation to continue," Joel Kan, vice president and deputy chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers...

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — High mortgage rates and recession fears are hurting home prices, so expect growth to be flat this year, one expert says.

Home prices have already begun moderating. According to Case-Shiller, home prices fell month-over-month from June to July for the first time in 20 years. The latest numbers, which will be for August, will be reported on Tuesday morning. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.94% last week as compared to 3.85% a year ago. The MBA is also expecting rates to come down to 5.4% by the end of next year.

But he also warned that some markets may actually see home prices drop. We’re already seeing home values fall in some markets, from pandemic boomtowns like Austin and Phoenix to well-known expensive ones the San Francisco Bay Area. Nonetheless, demand for housing should recover eventually, given that there are a lot of people who will soon be in need of a home that they own.

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