How the alliance acts on Ukraine will determine how others align themselves in this era of strategic competition
, two significant military powers , to the alliance will strengthen Nato’s northern axis, and the — still fragile — rapprochement with Turkey’s President Erdoğan will do the same for its southern flank.
Today’s threat is Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Yesterday’s was terrorism and trafficking emerging from state failure. Tomorrow’s inevitable challenge is China, particularly asopens Arctic waters and brings Nato and China into proximity in the high north. What next? State failure in post-Putin Russia? Uncontrolled artificial intelligence? Resource wars in Africa? These and more are possible, as are unknown unknowns. The western alliance, with Nato at its core, must be ready for anything.
The other key lesson as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine concerns Nato’s engagement beyond the Euro-Atlantic. Climate change, the tech revolution, ageing populations, migration, the resurgence of the petrodollar, and competition for raw materials critical to the green transition and modern economy are already having a geopolitical — as well as socio-economic — impact.
More private western investment in the global south could be unleashed if underwritten by political investment in sustained and stable relationships. And the welcome, if still tentative, efforts by Washington and Beijing to stabilise their relationship will be more resilient if underpinned by a common approach with the US’s European and Pacific allies. The Vilnius meeting was a useful step forward in that endeavour.
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