“Vladimir Putin’s invasion has proved to be a colossal miscalculation,” writes KofmanMichael. But “Russia is not going away as a strategic competitor”, he explains in a guest essay
military performance in Ukraine has badly damaged the reputation of its armed forces. Bogged down, and with losses mounting, the Russian army hardly appears to be the second- or third-most capable force in the world, as was previously thought. Conversely,has been reinvigorated, with Finland and Sweden hoping to join. Vladimir Putin’s invasion has proved to be a colossal miscalculation.
During the initial invasion, Russia’s armed forces pursued an unworkable military strategy, chasing unachievable objectives. The troops were neither informed about, nor prepared for, a major war. Since then, they have adjusted substantially. In the Donbas, Russian forces are prosecuting the offensive in a manner much closer to how they train and organise to fight. Despite a substantially diminished force, the Russian offensive has made incremental gains.
Another area where Russia fell flat was its inability to scale up operations. What its army could do on a lesser scale in 2014 and 2015, it could not replicate across Ukraine. From communications to logistics, combined arms and beyond, Russia’s armed forces lacked experience in large-scale operations prior to the invasion, and it showed. But so would, were it not for America.
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