The numbers from the 2021 NFL season are in, and Eagles' coach Nick Sirianni ended up one of the more aggressive coaches in the league.
Asked before last season how aggressive he would be on fourth downs, Nick Sirianni divulged little about his plans for competitive reasons. Even as the Eagles coach’s first year unfolded, it was difficult to get a grip on his to-go-for-it-or-not philosophy. He at times alternately appearedBut the numbers from the 2021 season are in, and Sirianni ended up one of the more aggressive coaches in the NFL.
The increasing use of analytics in the NFL has certainly played a role in the upward trend, so much that Football Outsiders changed its metric for aggressiveness this offseason to reflect a new league average. But the inflection point, most agree, came after Doug Pederson and the Eagles’ success on fourth downs in 2017.
Only the Packers’ Matt LaFleur went for it on fourth-and-1 at a higher rate than Sirianni last season. But in terms of attempts, the Colts’ Frank Reich led the NFL, going for it on fourth-and-1 a total of 16 out of 20 times. It’s not just about fourth downs or when to go for two. And, ultimately, the point is to put your team in the best position to win based on probability percentage.
“I trust them, and I really value what they do,” Sirianni said. “I guess, for the longest time it was always, hey, you’re watching tape. But it is good to be able to watch the tape and then apply the analytics after you watch the tape.” Staley played quarterback in college. He often talks like an offensive coach and uses analytical phrases to explain his choices. But since his controversial fourth-down decisions late last season, he has pushed back against being known as the “Analytics Guy.”
In a December rematch against the Chiefs, the Chargers failed on three fourth-down attempts within field-goal range. They eventually lost in overtime. The most scrutinized decision came before the half when, ahead 14-10, Staley went for it on fourth-and-goal at the 1-yard line and a Herbert pass was deflected.
The Chargers coach defended his decisions after the game, saying what mattered was that by having the appropriate personnel he gave his team the best chance to win. The analytics community had his back, at least as far the controversial fourth down, saying he increased the Chargers’ win probability. “I think organizationally we’re always trying to win on the margins and find any advantage that we can,” Browns coach Kevin Stefanski said. “And there’s a lot of times on fourth down there, we feel good about our options in those moments. But then personally, we want to play to win. I want to make sure I’m always coaching to win.
“I’m not trying to compare our offense to the Chiefs’, but we were an explosive offense, and a good running team,” Sirianni said. “We felt good that on fourth down, that in those situations on third down, that we did get the first down, that we would convert because we had faith in our run game on that third-and-1-to-4 area.”
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