Q1 was a weird, mostly negative quarter for crypto markets, but bitcoin’s renewed strength at the end of March could signal we might be at a turning point. gckaloudis writes for this week’s Crypto Long & Short newsletter.
. Ethereum changing its consensus mechanism to proof-of-stake has been closely watched by investors, and the successful test signaled to the market that Ethereum might actually make the transition that has been in the works since 2015.
On the topic of ether, its price compared to bitcoin’s has started to reverse. ETHBTC was on a steady climb from 0.024 to as high as 0.087 in 2021 , but ETH’s market cap has mostly lost ground to BTC this year, dropping from 0.083 to 0.065 between Jan. 4 and March 14. Since then, ETHBTC has steadily walked up to 0.073.
From here, it is natural to look at bitcoin dominance, the measure of BTC market capitalization compared to the market capitalization of all crypto assets. In times of uncertainty, bitcoin dominance tends to gain ground, and that has come to bear so far in 2022. It has been a weird, tough year in general for the crypto market, even with the recent run-up .
If we consider that bear markets come in two phases, the first where a low proportion of wealth is held by older investors and the second where the wealth disparity recovers strongly as more coins age into the one-year band at a higher cost basis. That cost basis should stand in as a higher floor value than the previous cycle. We might be at a turning point in this bear market.
Lastly, while the past is not indicative of the future, understanding the past can help us anticipate what might happen. Looking back, we know that it sometimes snows in April on the bitcoin market. But usually bitcoin performs well in April, with an average gain of about 17% over the month. So, who knows, maybe we’ll close the book on the bear market in the next 27 days. But maybe not.
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