Offset markets struggle in the face of surging commodity prices

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Offset markets struggle in the face of surging commodity prices
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The market is not working. The price of a carbon offset is far too low

Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskDemand for such carbon offsets is forecast to rocket over the next couple of decades, as businesses attempt to make good on their promises to reach net zero carbon emissions. Last year an estimated $1bn was spent on offsets. McKinsey, a consultancy, predicts that the size of the market could expand by a factor of 15 by 2030 and 100 by 2050.

Deforestation remains economically rational. Because a palm-oil plantation still captures around 170 tonnes of carbon dioxide per hectare, leaving the land uncultivated offsets only 112 tonnes. An offset price of $10 means that, if the accounting is done properly, selling offsets yields revenue of only $1,120—not enough to compensate for the potential loss of about $3,800 in annual sales of palm oil.

Another problem is that there are few internationally agreed rules for offsets. A report published earlier this month by Carbon Direct, a consultancy, said that “the voluntary carbon market largely consists of projects of questionable quality.” A surplus of older and less reliable offsets hangs over the market, depressing prices.

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