Putin faces a tough 2023 for Russian oil as the West's ban and price cap take hold. These 3 experts assess whether the measures will work — and what it means for crude prices.
Brace for a drop in Russian oil output and a spike in global crude prices next year as fresh Western sanctions against Moscow take hold and with China's energy demand set to rebound, three industry analysts told Insider. February 5
It follows an EU embargo on seaborne imports of Russian crude effective December 5 and a G7 move to cap the country's oil at $60 a barrel. Both measures aim to blunt Moscow's export revenue while still keeping Russian crude flowing through global markets to prevent a supply shock. The nation has been rerouting increasing volumes of its oil to India and China amid rising political tensions with Europe, one of its biggest markets, due to the war in Ukraine. In the week leading up to December 9, Moscow sent 89% of its crude, amounting to about 3 million barrels a day, to Asia.
"As long as US shale performs and delivers growth, we see the market moving towards a more normal equilibrium," Louise Dickson, a senior analyst at Rystad Energy told Insider.With global supplies expected to get squeezed, crude prices will likely soar past $100 a barrel next year, according to Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen and UBS Global Wealth's Staunovo.
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