Proportion of Irish population aged 65 and over will rise from one in seven to one in five. We need tailored solutions to assist that older demographic and preserve their dignity
Census 2022 showed that the population of the State reached 5.1 million, passing five million for the first time since the Great Famine 172 years ago. Projections from the Central Statistics Office show that the population may increase by a further 929,000 by 2041.
Successive governments are aware of the demographic challenges but official figures around Sláintecare, the 10-year plan aimed at overhauling the health system for a changing population, suggest they may be undershooting on the extent of the problem over the coming decades. In absolute terms, that amounts to between 2,575 and 3,236 additional medical staff and between 5,726 and 8,868 additional nurses and midwives by 2035. Those are significant increases at a time when the Health Service Executive fell well short on its own recruitment target last year.
Whether the coming winters will see similar hospital overcrowding to the current crisis will depend on whether this winter will be an outlier. Emergency departments have been hit this year with a “perfect storm” of a Covid-19 wave coming on top of a surge in cases of seasonal influenza, respiratory syncytial virus and other respiratory illnesses.
“A lot more people will be living a lot longer with chronic illnesses, so the really acute, intensive healthcare might be delayed but the chronic stuff will last a lot longer. That will have an impact not just on the acute hospital system but particularly on primary care,” said Dr Turner. Prof Kenny, the founding principal investigator of Ireland’s largest adult population study, The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing , said the data collected through the TCD-based research programme has pointed to potential health solutions for an ageing population.
“The model of one size, one stop for older persons, which we are proposing has not established itself in Irish medicine yet.”
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