There are two days left of campaigning for the local and European elections and, if exit polls from other recent elections are anything to go by, many voters are still making their minds up.
It's more than four years and a political lifetime since they last had their say - in the general election in 2020. The double referendum defeats earlier this year were a harsh reminder to many that the privacy of the ballot box can deliver an unexpected jolt to the political status quo.
A number of missteps, including its response to the Dublin riots, a migration policy which is at odds with the views of many of its core voters, and being on the wrong side of the referendum debates are all being cited as reasons for its slippage in the polls. With just one seat in the outgoing European parliament, Sinn Féin will almost certainly make gains and is hoping for three seats. But with low profile candidates in Midlands North-West and the party brand suffering, this is not a certainty.
It’s a similar story with the Europeans. Last time the party won five of the 13 seats. This time around it is more likely to come back with three. The flip side of this is that, with so many incumbents who are now well established in their communities, they may poll ahead of the true support levels, if a general election were held tomorrow.
But who then would go to Brussels? Could the party afford to lose its best performer in cabinet, Michael McGrath, if the Minister or Finance is to deliver one last Budget before a general election?A series of recent opinion polls suggest Independents are having their moment and seem to be hoovering up some of the post-crash floating vote that had more recently gone Sinn Féin’s way.
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