ICYMI: Bank of Canada could put rate hikes on pause after September, CIBC says — via financialpost banks ratehikes
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CIBC’s managing director and head of fixed income, Ian Pollick, said in an Aug. 22 note his team suspects a “narrative shift is coming” and forecasts the bank will put a pause on its rate hiking cycle after hiking 75 basis points on Sept. 7. This would bring the policy rate up to 3.25 per cent, matching the bank’s previous guidance that the benchmark rateneutral at between two to three per cent — a reading that would neither help nor hinder economic growth.
“We anticipate that the September statement will lean towards data dependence rather than outright rhetoric suggesting rates will ‘rise further’ as seen in the July statement,” Pollick said in the note to clients. “For this reason, if we are correct that the bank is entering a period of inertia in Q4, it is very likely that market sensitivity will shift away from central bank signalling and towards data — predominantly inflation, but to a lesser extent growth.
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