President Erdogan shifts towards sane economics

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President Erdogan shifts towards sane economics
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  • 📰 TheEconomist
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The most important step would be reversing an easing cycle that began in autumn 2021 during which Turkey’s benchmark interest rate dropped by more than ten percentage points

of trying to bring down inflation by making borrowing cheaper. It is precisely the opposite of what any mainstream economist would advise, and it was never going to work. Now the recently re-elected president’s new cabinet, which includes Mehmet Simsek, a voice of economic orthodoxy, as the new treasury and finance minister, suggests his wild ride may have run its course.

Of these, the most important would be reversing an easing cycle that began in autumn 2021 during which Turkey’s benchmark interest rate dropped by more than ten percentage points. The interest-rate cuts, ordered by Mr Erdogan, sustained economic growth, which reached an annual rate of 4% in the first three months of this year. But they also caused galloping inflation, which peaked at 86% last year before easing, to 44% in April.

Rumours of Mr Simsek’s appointment failed to check the lira’s slide last week. That is because investors believe that the central bank has run out of money to intervene in currency markets. The bank sold tens of billions of dollars to prop up the currency ahead of last month’s elections, a policy that helped Mr Erdogan secure a third term as president but left the bank’s coffers depleted. Net foreign reserves fell below zero at the end of May for the first time in two decades.

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