Venezuela sits on 20% of the world’s proven oil reserves. The war in Ukraine has made everyone more nervous about oil supplies, and therefore made the cost of isolating Venezuela seem higher
, Venezuela’s capital. Traffic jams, absent for years, now clog up roads. Political posters, which used to loom over the city preaching grim mantras such as “socialism or death”, have been replaced by advertisements for whisky or cosmetic surgery. The buzz of a motorcycle, once something to fear in the notoriously violent capital, is more likely to herald the arrival of a food delivery than an armed robbery.
Under Mr Trump, America imposed sanctions on Venezuela’s oil, banking and mining industries as well as more than 140 regime insiders. President Joe Biden, by contrast, is cautiously re-engaging with Venezuela. Mr Biden’s envoys have met members of Mr Maduro’s regime twice in Caracas. In October, seven American citizens imprisoned in Venezuela were exchanged for two nephews of Mr Maduro’s wife, Cilia Flores.
Events closer to home are also helping the tyrant come out of the cold. The victory of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil’s presidential elections means all the region’s main economies will soon be led by left-wing governments, which are generally less hostile to Mr Maduro than previous right-wing ones were. When Lula, as he is known, takes office in January, he is expected swiftly to resume diplomatic relations with Venezuela’s regime.
Second, Mr Maduro’s record also suggests that at the negotiating table he will not play fair. The deal being sought is, broadly, that the regime agrees to hold presidential elections with enough safeguards that they could be deemed free, and the opposition agrees to participate. The Biden administration could offer more of what it describes as “sanctions relief” if steps are made towards returning Venezuela to democracy.
Those who say that talks are always better than no talks point to some non-electoral issues where the two sides might agree for the benefit of ordinary Venezuelans. One is access to around $3bn of Venezuelan government assets, currently frozen in American and European banks. As the talks began in Mexico the two sides agreed to establish a United Nations-managed fund to finance health, food and education programmes for the poor, though details of how this will operate still need to be finalised.
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