Analysts say Russia’s President Putin can back down from any military confrontation with Ukraine without looking weak. Whether he’ll do so is another matter.
Putin is known for his strongman image in Russia, and with the oppression of opposition figures and independent media, the Kremlin is able to control the domestic narrative when it comes to the president.
"Putin can still back down without major domestic repercussions, though the more material the West commits to Eastern Europe in general does arguably make it somewhat harder," he said. Many analysts believe that a smaller incursion in the Donbas region by Russia is possible — or even likely. This would both save face and destabilize Ukraine, while potentially gaining pro-Russian territory. Hess said an attempted annexation of the Donbas was his baseline scenario.
"There was no societal demand for Putin to play as rough as he does to begin with ... there was no demand for escalation at all — so any de-escalation would be welcomed by Russians," Anton Barbashin, editorial director of Russian affairs journal Riddle, told CNBC on Monday.
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