The next phase of Russia's unprovoked onslaught in Ukraine is likely to result in a dangerous stalemate, according to analysts.
Russia's reconcentration of troops foreshadows "some all too plausible horrors," TS Lombard's Christopher Granville told CNBC.
Analysts see the shift in Russia's approach as a tacit acknowledgment of failure, saying fierce resistance from Ukrainian forces has thwarted Putin's attempt to swiftly capture major cities and topple the government. that forces were shifting away from a country-wide attack. Instead, Rudskoy said the Kremlin's goal was to concentrate efforts on the "complete liberation" of the Donbas region.
Thousands of people have been trying to flee the Donbas region, with scores of families seen queuing for days at Kramatorsk central station in an attempt to reach safety.Ukrainian forces fought Russian-backed separatists in Kramatorsk in 2014, and Granville said the nearby city of Slovyansk was known to have "totemic significance" for the Donbas separatists.
"One would be for Russia to withdraw to relative safety, and use this opportunity to rearm, reorganize and reinforce their forces for a better organized and more competent advance back into Ukrainian-held territory," Flint told CNBC.This approach is not without risks, however, particularly given that Ukrainian forces could cross borders to engage with Russia and a second attempt to invade may fail as it did in the first instance, he said.
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