While Republicans are still in a good position to capture a House majority, that majority looks narrower today than it ever has, having ticked down for the second straight month to 223 seats in our model estimate.
While they're still in a very good position to capture a House majority, that majority looks narrower today than it ever has, having ticked down for the second straight month to 223 seats in our model estimate. Republicans were at 226 in August and 230 in July.
Voters believe by two to one that a Republican Congress would lead to women getting fewer rights and freedoms than they have now, rather than more rights. Democrats now have a slightly larger lead among those saying abortion is very important than they did in August. Abortion is a make-or-break issue for most women voters. Seven in 10 women say a candidate must agree with them on that to get their vote. That's higher than other issues tested. This is especially the case for women who want abortion to be legal. A larger percentage of them rank the issue as very important than either the economy or inflation.By a substantial margin, voters say the overturning of Roe makes them more likely to back a Democratic candidate than a Republican one.
Most Republicans say they approve of transferring migrants because it forces other states to deal with the issue and calls attention to the problem, though fewer than half say it is good for the migrants.Republican policies are seen by more voters as able to keep them safe. And Republicans are winning voters who say crime is very important, by a wide margin. And then — the number who feel democracy is threatened is still high.
Trump motivates turnout for Republicans: those who think loyalty to him is"very important" are more enthusiastic and more likely to say they'll vote than those who place less importance on loyalty.What can changeDespite enthusiasm growing, Democrats are still less likely than Republicans to say they'll definitely vote. They haven't closed that gap.
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