Lessons from the Ukraine conflict: While big war is back, the battle is being fought on multiple fronts
Russian forces failed to take the capital Kyiv and Ukrainian troops have since pushed them out from over half the territory they initially seized. Yet Moscow remains seemingly undeterred: Ukraine has repeatedly warned that Russia is planning another land attack on the capital, despite its depleted ability to launch a major ground offensive.
So far, though, the West – wary of escalating a conflict that could lead to direct confrontation between Nato countries and Russia – has resisted providing the modern tanks, long-range missiles and jets also requested by Kyiv. In an effort to rectify that, Putin in October appointed General Sergey Surovikin to command Russia’s forces in Ukraine. Surovikin, a veteran of the war in Syria, is “probably the most competent commander Russia has put in place”, said Dara Massicot, a Russia military expert at the Rand Corporation think-tank.
“But their morale and determination are still incomparably higher than their opponents’, and they have been much more effective than the Russians in mobilising.” By contrast, popular Russian support for the war halved between June and November to 27 per cent, according to an unverified internal Kremlin poll reported by exiled news outlet Meduza.
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