Institute for the Study of War says the Kremlin is seeking to exploit a window of opportunity before US assistance is delivered
Apartment buildings destroyed by artillery in the village of Ocheretyne, near the town of Avdiivka, in the Donetsk region. Photograph: Anatolii Stepanov/AFP via Getty Images Russia has consolidated recent battlefield gains in the east of Ukraine, and is attempting to break through Ukrainian defensive lines before a long-awaited package of US military assistance arrives at the front line.
‘It’s an eye-opener’: The Irish medics training Ukrainian lawyers, vets and photographers to help the war effortRussia seized Avdiivka in February after Ukrainian troops withdrew. Moscow’s forces have been advancing ever since. Northwest of Avdiivka, Russian brigades have come within about 18 miles of the city of Pokrovsk, a Ukrainian military hub. Farther north, they are assaulting the town of Chasiv Yar, near Bakhmut, using airdropped glide bombs to pound Ukrainian positions.
According to the Institute for the Study of War , the Kremlin is seeking to exploit a window of opportunity before US assistance is delivered. Moscow has been bringing in reinforcements and has a threefold advantage in some sectors. Its recent tactical gains suggest an ambitious plan to encircle the Ukrainian garrison cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in a summer offensive. Whether it will succeed is unclear. Russia was unlikely to overwhelm Ukrainian defences, the ISW said last week.
The officials suggest the next few months will be critical. Ukrainian service personnel complain that they are completely outgunned. Russia is able to fire at least six shells for every salvo sent by Ukraine in return. Stocks of Soviet-era anti-aircraft missiles ran out long ago, with Russian warplanes able to operate freely close to the front line. Ukraine has fewer tanks and armoured vehicles.
Russia claimed it was targeting “English-speaking mercenaries”. It used the same formula to describe ballistic missile strikes earlier this year on hotels in Kharkiv, where several foreign journalists and local staff were injured. Ukraine’s armed forces frequently carry out strikes on Crimea and have used sea drones to drive out Russian’s Black Sea fleet from the port of Sevastopol. Intelligence officials indicate they intend to blow up the road and rail bridge connecting the occupied peninsula with Russia.
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