Experts assess that Moscow's intensified bombing campaign aims to force Ukraine back to negotiations, even as Kyiv's military strength grows and Russian forces suffer heavy losses.
Analysts say that Russia's recent escalation of air strikes is an effort to regain leverage in any future peace negotiations with Kyiv, even as its frontline advance has all but stalled.
The intensity of the attacks, exemplified by a June 2 strike on a residential block in Kyiv, underscores a strategy that relies on overwhelming firepower to force the Ukrainian side back to the negotiating table. Military experts in Europe, including Franz‑Stefan Gady, a Vienna‑based analyst, note that Ukraine's forces are now considerably stronger than they were a year ago, thanks to a combination of improved training, better intelligence, and a steady flow of Western weapons.
This growing competence on the battlefield has altered the strategic calculus for Moscow, which is now confronting the prospect that its offensive can no longer achieve rapid, decisive gains. In the south‑east, Ukrainian soldiers in towns such as Kostiantynivka continue to repel Russian drones and artillery, while the Russian army appears to be losing ground faster than it can recapture it.
Open‑source monitoring groups like DeepState UA reported that in May the Russian military suffered a net territorial loss - the first month of such a reversal since the large‑scale Ukrainian counteroffensive of 2023 - despite a 37.5 percent rise in the number of attacks launched. This paradox suggests a degradation of Russian combat capability, with many strikes now being executed by small, isolated units rather than coordinated formations.
Senior research fellow Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute warned that while Russia can sustain air raids for an extended period, its overall combat performance is waning, fueling optimism in Kyiv that a cease‑fire could eventually be forced on Moscow. The human cost of the conflict is becoming increasingly stark.
British intelligence chief Anne Keast‑Butler recently estimated that nearly half a million Russian soldiers have been killed since February 2022, a figure that aligns with reports of monthly Russian casualties ranging from 15,000 to 20,000 dead. In occupied Donbas territories, Russian authorities have intensified forced mobilisation, cancelling deferrals for young men, conducting registration raids, and threatening legal penalties to fill the dwindling ranks.
Experts such as Maksym Beznosiuk of the Jamestown Foundation argue that this coercive recruitment is an attempt not only to plug the personnel gap but also to alter the demographic composition of the region. Meanwhile, European allies continue to bolster Ukraine's defenses, with Finland announcing a $149 million arms package and Sweden committing 16 Gripen fighter jets.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the latest large‑scale attack as a transparent message from Moscow: without robust protection against ballistic and missile strikes, the Russian onslaught will intensify, potentially spilling over into neighboring European states
Russia-Ukraine War Air Strikes Peace Talks Military Casualties Western Aid
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