Stocks have undergone a rally, but still maintaining the stance that it is a corrective bounce that will lead to a new leg lower. Get your weekly equities forecast from PaulRobinsonFX here:
is weakening from the Feb 2 high and it is this price action that is helping create a ceiling around 4595 that may prove to be the end of the bounce. The rally is viewed as only a bounce, or corrective rally given the context of a market that looks like it may be in for another major leg lower in the weeks ahead.
A break below the 4451 level is viewed as being significant for accelerating the turn lower. This level marks both the Feb low and the 200-day moving average. The two technical thresholds are creating a strong level of confluent support. If we see a breakdown below support the possibility of a maturing H&S pattern comes to the forefront with the right shoulder taking shape. It will still take a break of the neckline to fully trigger the pattern. For now, using both noted short-term levels as points of interest to potentially take action.
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