Beijing can no longer rely on its demographic dividend to fuel growth. That may not be a bad thing.
China's statistics bureau said this week that its population has fallen for the first time in 60 years, with the birth rate also hitting a record lowChina's population has fallen for the first time in six decades, official statistics revealed earlier this week - but this trend may not spell doom for the country in the short term, experts say.
While ageing populations have posed a challenge to economies around the world, the greater concern for China is the rapid pace at which this has been unfolding in the midst of its middle-income transition.Its statistics bureau said this week that its population had fallen for the first time in 60 years, with the birth rate also hitting a record low - to no surprise. Some researchers believe the population decline started in 2018 and census estimates have been inaccurate.
"The broader demographic story won't bite fully on China's growth until both of these sources of slack have been exhausted," he said. "China's shrinking labour force and manufacturing recession will lead to high prices and high inflation in the US and EU," said Yi Fuxian, a researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and longtime critic of China's now-defunct one-child policy.
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