While it is almost certain that Sinn Féin will emerge as the largest party, that is no guarantee of government
Irish political history is littered with occasions when the biggest party did not form the government. It happened after the elections of 1948, 1954, 1973, 1981 and 1982 and again in 1994 without an election. In all these instances Fianna Fáil had a far bigger share of votes and seats than Sinn Féin is likely to at the next election, but was denied power by a combination of opponents.
A rough assessment of the outcome for the new 174-member Dáil, based on its most recent Irish Times polling figure of 31 per cent, gives Sinn Féin about 60 seats. Short of a surge during the campaign similar to 2020, that will leave the party more than 25 seats shy of being able to take the reins of power – unless it can persuade one of the other big parties into a coalition.
If Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael can win about 20 per cent of the vote each they should have more than 70 seats between them, particularly if their supporters transfer to each other in significant numbers. That would leave them in a stronger position than Sinn Féin to negotiate a coalition with smaller parties or Independents.
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