Tensions between Washington and Beijing over the island are the most likely trigger for military conflict between the world’s two most powerful countries
Taiwan watches closely as US prepares to choose a new president“Back in 2016, a lot of Taiwan ese voters were actually quite supportive of Trump. They saw Trump as a Republican president who might be able to take a tougher stance on China . And indeed, Trump did do a few things that are good from the Taiwan ese perspective.
“The argument is that just as in the case of Europe, Taiwan shouldn’t be freeriding US security assistance. Taiwan needs to defend itself so that the US could help Taiwan. That’s not an entirely unreasonable proposition from the US perspective,” Yin said. “The economy is doing great but there are two major risks, worsening income distribution because of asset price inflation and inflation in general. Second, the geopolitical risk is only increasing and by now I think people realise, foreign investors also, that this is not going to go away,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, the Taiwan-based chief economist for Asia Pacific at the French investment bank Natixis.
Tsai did not accept this so-called 1992 consensus but in her inaugural speech in 2016, she said she respected the understandings as a historical fact. Although Beijing condemned her as a dangerous separatist, the former president was skilful at avoiding confrontation and made sure to keep Washington on board.
Ming-Chi Chen is a former national security adviser to Taiwan’s government who also served as deputy minister in the Mainland Affairs office dealing with relations with Beijing. He believes that Lai’s inauguration speech reflected the new president’s conviction that no matter how hard he tried, he could not persuade Beijing to engage.
“They thought the first Trump was quite positive for Taiwan. He managed to have what I call the paradigm shift in the attitude to and the policy towards China. The China policy made a big change in that time,” he said. “You will know what to expect. More predictable, a small deviation from the current policy towards Taiwan or China. There will be some change, inevitable change, but not a big deviation. Trump is not predictable. It could be very favourable to Taiwan, although I doubt it deeply. But I don’t know how he will deal with China. He’s not very knowledgeable about Taiwan. He thinks Taiwan is tiny. And he believes in spheres of influence.
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