The “no-coups policy” of the African Union, which seemed more or less to work after it was adopted in 2000, now counts for little
The army had other ideas. In April 2019 it seized power again. Weeks later, security forces gunned down protesters, killing more than 100 and tossing their bodies into the Nile. Demonstrators kept coming out into the streets, however, braving bullets and beatings. To end the crisis, mediators pressed the protest leaders to let the army stay in charge for almost two years in exchange for a promise that it would hand power to civilians and allow elections in 2022.
Western donors could have smoothed Sudan’s transition with aid more quickly. Instead the economy kept contracting, fuelling a sense of crisis that the army exploited. Days before the coup, Western diplomats warned the generals to back off. That they did not shows how lightly they now take Western threats.
Two trends are making putsches more likely. One is the spread of jihadism. In 2012, when soldiers seized power in Mali, theswiftly suspended it. The Economic Community of West African States , a regional bloc, imposed sanctions and America halted aid. But then jihadists overran the north of the country. Now theappear to have an unofficial policy of publicly ticking the generals off but leaving them in place rather than risking instability.
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