Air travel has quickly returned to pre-pandemic levels, as people rush to book flights, but there’s a huge shortage of aircraft, and airlines are having to cut capacity and increase prices
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Demand shows no signs of slowing. Furlong maintains that people are prioritising travel over other spending, so will continue to fly despite the higher prices. Ed Bastian, chief executive of US carrier Delta Air Lines, told analysts recently that the “consumer is in good financial shape”. Collins believes that a shortage of pilots and crew has prompted carriers to rein in capacity. Bastian highlighted “pilot-training shortfalls” as a problem for US airlines when he spoke to industry analysts last week.
Elsewhere, only eastern European budget operator Wizz and flag carrier Turkish Airlines have increased the number of planes in their fleets. Everyone else has trimmed their capacity relative to 2019, by about 20 per cent in many cases. The consequence, Furlong notes, is there are 4 per cent fewer seats available on European airlines than in 2019.
Cronin says that current efforts to ramp up production will simply return the industry to its 2019 level, so that the gap between supply and demand will remain, potentially up to the end of the decade. Dublin-based Avolon, which buys aircraft and leases them to airlines around the world, recently ordered 60 new jets from leading manufacturers Boeing and Airbus, a clear sign that it believes demand for flying will not slow.
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