Events in France point to a more chaotic future, and Ireland must build its defence and security infrastructure amid growing challenges
faces into the second round of its unexpected, dramatic general election, with a number of grave risks on the political and economic horizons. There will be implications for Europe, and Ireland.’s plan to throw a grenade into the political arena has backfired badly. His hope was to recompose the centre of French politics but instead he has evacuated it.
The other scenario, given the obvious lack of durability of a far left-anchored coalition, is some form of technocratic government. Both scenarios are laden with the risk of constitutional crisis and the potential for political unrest and strikes. Macron has done something unusual for a French president in that he has, possibly like David Cameron and his successors in the Tory party, done harm to his country. In the eyes of many, his decision to call an election has opened up a series of tail-risks for France and Europe, and this is where the implications for Ireland lie.
As such, there is a higher risk of financial stress in the euro zone, though likely not a full-blown crisis. In this context a far-right-led government may opt to put fiscal policy on autopilot and focus much more intently on the issues of identity, immigration and security, which itself would be contentious.
There are perhaps two more lessons for Ireland. The first is that it has one of the best democratic systems in the world, even if that is not always accurately reflected in public discourse. The lesson is that democracies need to be nurtured and protected, and the incivility that has crept into public life is a negative development.
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