Sixty years ago Thomas Schelling, an economist, used the tools of game theory to analyse the strategy of war. His work is more relevant now than ever
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskGame theory came into its own in the 1940s and 1950s, thanks to the efforts of scholars like John von Neumann and John Nash, who used mathematics to analyse the strategies available to participants in various sorts of formal interactions. Schelling used game theory as a prism through which to better understand war.
The credibility of retaliatory threats matters, as well; both sides of a potential conflict may issue grave threats, but if they ring hollow they may be ignored. The threat of stiff sanctions by Western democracies—clearly a powerful tool in hindsight—might well have been weakened by doubts that governments were prepared to expose their citizens to soaring oil and gas prices. Governments deploy a range of tools to bolster the credibility of their threats.
And yet the cold war also threatened to turn hot at times, as in 1962. Schelling helped explain why. He noted that the threat of a nuclear attack could be made credible, even in the context of mutually assured destruction, if some element of that threat was left to chance. As a showdown between nuclear powers becomes more intense, Schelling observed, the risk that unexpected and perhaps undesired developments cause the situation to spiral out of control rises.
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