For the first time in years, Republican and Democratic political professionals are preparing for a general election campaign in which Democrats — not Republicans — may be winning the culture wars.
On top of that, abortion as a voting issue has been blotting out other cultural concerns, second only to inflation, according to an NPR/PBSPatrick Ruffini, a Republican consultant and pollster who has worked for the Republican National Committee and former President George W. Bush’s 2004 reelection campaign, said that while Republicans still have winning arguments on issues including school curriculum and pandemic-related restrictions, abortion “happens to be the most salient issue right now.
Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster, noted that “cultural issues still benefit Republicans, butis a big deal, because it really energized women who weren’t particularly political before, including younger women.” “The best case for Republicans is to have this be a referendum on the Biden administration and Democratic governance, especially inflation, immigration and crime,” he said. “Anything that detracts from that referendum undermines the Republican case.”
For Republicans, the result has been a general election reset in which the GOP is refocusing squarely on inflation and on Biden, whose low job approval ratings remain a drag on the Democratic Party. Republicans are still widely expected to take the House in November, though likely by narrower margins than once expected. But if they do win the House it will likely be those kitchen-table issues, not the culture wars, that put them over the top.responsible for inflation and a teetering economy.
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