By cutting gas supplies to Germany, Vladimir Putin wants to blackmail Europe into dropping sanctions. The bloc is holding out—for now
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskRather, the cuts are blackmail, aimed at forcing Europe to drop sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Pundits had expected the Kremlin to tighten the screws, but not so quickly. Ifremains at 20% of capacity Germany will not be able to reach the government’s goal of filling 95% of its gas-storage tanks by November. They are now two-thirds full.reacted with unusual speed.
and runs until the end of March. But it is a watered-down version of the European Commission’s initial proposal. Countries that use little Russian gas, including Poland, Portugal and Spain, resisted the mandatory cuts pressed by countries like Germany and Austria, which use lots of it. The ensuing horse-trading led to many carve-outs. Hopefully Europeans will reduce consumption voluntarily, says Simone Tagliapietra of Bruegel, a think-tank in Brussels, since thedeal contains too many exemptions from obligatory targets. It does have a “union alert” that can be triggered if there are severe supply shortages, in which case the targets become mandatory. But even then, the list of derogations is so long and detailed that cuts will remain voluntary in practice.
Russia’s pressure tactics may yet work. Annalena Baerbock, Germany’s foreign minister, said she had to overcome objections from Canada to allowing the turbine to be returned to Russia. But if Germany’s gas were to be cut off, she continued, “we won’t be able to provide any support for Ukraine at all, because we’ll be busy with popular uprisings.” German voters feel powerless in the face of high inflation and fears about energy shortages and a looming recession.
The Kremlin could cut off gas exports to Europe at any time. If it wants to maximise Europeans’ suffering and anxiety, it might close the taps on a cold day in winter. Theif the winter is cold and no preventive measures are taken., a business daily, gave worried Germans some reassurance.
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