South Asian countries battered by 12 months of upheaval will be hoping the new year is a quieter, more stable and more prosperous one. India, which has reached a turning point for its economy, will be hoping much the same WorldAhead
of the world will limp into 2023 quite like South Asia. Consider the year the region has just had. In Sri Lanka, the economy collapsed, inflation hit 70%, food and fuel ran short and a president was chased out of the country by a popular uprising. Pakistan flirted with default, suffered biblical floods that caused an estimated $32bn-40bn in damage, and must put up with constant disruption from Imran Khan, a rabble-rousing ex-prime minister, who is making the country ungovernable.
India’s remarkable run looks set to continue in 2023. Even as China suffers from a self-inflicted slowdown, and parts of the West teeter on the edge of recession, India’s growth will barely decelerate. Its economy is expected to expand by 6.1%. In part this is down to interest from abroad. As the West’s relationship with China grows more hostile, companies are looking to shift their manufacturing bases elsewhere. India is a big beneficiary.
Yet India will not grow in splendid isolation. Like the rest of South Asia, it faces risks from events and trends beyond its control. Three factors threaten to destabilise the region in 2023. The first is the cost of living. Economic and climate crises had made life unaffordable for many in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, but the whole region is paying the price for Russia’s war in Ukraine, which has sent the cost of food and fuel soaring.
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