EU policy-making faces new uncertainties with a prolonged period of bargaining likely after the results of Friday’s vote are announced
Ursula von der Leyen and Giorgia Meloni : the European Commission president may seek support from the Italian prime minister to try to hold on to her job after Friday's elections European Union institutions and policies reflect and represent public opinion at national and European levels of politics. In the 27 member-states and in the current competitions for the 720 seats in the European Parliament these electoral contests promise to be particularly consequential this year.
Ahead of the voting over next weekend there are several signs of change in the dynamics between centrist and right-wing groups in the parliament. A strong convention between the social democrat, Christian democrat and liberal groups not to bargain with the hard- and far-right parties is under real pressure following Commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s reaching out to the Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni for future support.
Von der Leyen’s task is complicated by a competing appeal for Meloni’s support from Marine Le Pen, leader of the French Rassemblement National, a member of the parliament’s far-right Identity and Democracy group. That offer is not reciprocated by Meloni and it remains to be seen if these parties and groups will reconfigure after the elections.
A major strategic choice faces the centrist bloc in these circumstances. They may not be able to hold on to their existing commitment to shun these new right-wing forces. The new Dutch coalition is the seventh EU government to include them and polling shows they may secure many more seats in the European Parliament. A governing majority requires at least 361 seats and von der Leyen is determined to secure that number.
That is likely to make future EU policy-making really uncertain after the voting, at least until the political bargaining concludes. The usual trade-offs between national, geographic, policy and gender concerns face a new right-wing challenge. The old order in the EU is under threat.
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