History is not necessarily the best guide to this unpredictable election, where the old rules have already been upturned
Senator JD Vance, a Republican from Ohio and Republican vice-presidential nominee, and Tim Walz, governor of Minnesota and Democratic vice-presidential nominee, are shown on screen during the first vice presidential debate in New York, US, on Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024.
Just as Harris was widely agreed to have won that debate, so Vance is generally deemed to have bested Walz. An accomplished speaker, he succeded in projecting a more amiable persona than the pugnacious and divisive one whose popularity ratings have plumbed new lows for a vice-presidential candidate since Trump selected him in July.
History suggests that none of this will matter very much when votes are cast. But history is not necessarily the best guide to this unpredictable election, where the old rules have already been upturned. For decades, the place of live televised debates in the presidential election calendar was fixed. The candidates would meet two or three times in the weeks leading up to the election. But this year, the first debate was held in June, and led directly to the replacement of one party’s nominee. The sole encounter between Trump and Harris took place two months before election day.
What should worry the Harris camp is the challenge of maintaining momentum over these final five weeks without any large media set-pieces to keep her in the public mind. She needs these more than Trump, who voters, for good or ill, hardly need reminding about.
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