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As Donald Trump prepares for a state visit to Ireland, the country is bracing itself for a complex diplomatic dance. While Trump's affinity for his Doonbeg golf course provides a point of connection, the overriding goal for Irish officials is to ensure the visit passes without incident, prioritizing a 'quiet life' over confrontational exchanges.
There will be relief if Trump leaves Clare with the impression that 'the Irish really like me'. In the grand scheme of things, the truth doesn't matter.
Donald Trump's second presidential term has been a turbulent one internationally. He has toppled the Venezuelan leader, Nicolás Maduro, and acquired control over that country's oil resources; subjected friend and foe alike to punitive tariffs; and is now threatening regime change in Libya. In comparison to those ructions, Ireland has done quite well.
Our economic model was targeted early on by commerce secretary Wilbur Ross, and there has been some negative commentary in the United States' right-leaning media, but hardly a peep from the president. Foreign direct investment in Ireland continues to flourish, and our exports actually surged last year in anticipation of the impact of tariffs. Our many policy differences with Washington, including our support for Ukraine and our stance on the Occupied Territories, have not elicited any sharp reaction from Washington.
There was understandable apprehension around the Taoiseach's 2025 St Patrick's Day visit to Washington because of Trump's lack of a record on Ireland and his erratic behavior, but it was ultimately a success. Next week's visit will be the 13th overseas trip of the current Trump term. Most were made to fulfill international engagements - the Pope's funeral, NATO and G7 summits. Ireland will be among a small handful of countries to receive a bilateral visit.
During those visits, different coping strategies have been deployed for managing the president. NATO's Mark Rutte called him 'Daddy'. Qatar gifted him a jumbo jet. Chancellor Merz presented him with his German-born grandfather's birth certificate.
Keir Starmer flattered him with an invitation from King Charles to pay an unprecedented second state visit, and Britain subsequently pocketed the trade deal it coveted. Although Taoiseach Simon Harris has been quite vocal in his opposition to Trump's policies, I expect him to be gracious. He will be keen to avoid becoming the 'Irish Trudeau', referring to the former Canadian leader's awkward meeting with Trump. Nor will it be a sentimental homecoming à la Joe Biden in 2023.
Nonetheless, Trump does have a fondness for Ireland. He remembers being well-received when he acquired the Doonbeg property in 2014. Enda Kenny used his own enthusiasm for golf to break the ice with Trump in 2017, while Micheál Martin dropped in at Doonbeg last year in advance of his first meeting with Trump, who is inordinately proud of his Irish property. Doonbeg has turned out to be a diplomatic asset for us.
In 2019, Trump spent two nights in Co Clare, flitting back and forth from there to Britain and France for D-Day commemorations. He will derive real satisfaction from seeing his course being tested by some of the best golfers in the world. Fans attending the Irish Open will probably be respectful to this golf-obsessed visitor. But a Trump visit is clearly no picnic.
The attempts on his life mean that the security around him will necessarily be off the scale. Controversy follows him wherever he goes, much of it of his own making. He is now more embattled than at any time since he returned to the Oval Office, which has darkened his mood. Any media encounters he has will be fraught, as Irish journalists will be eager to pose the kind of questions he will not relish.
The fact that Ireland currently holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union adds a complicating factor at a time of strained EU-US relations. Do we include European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and European Council president António Costa and turn it into an EU-US affair? Or play it safe and keep it bilateral, which would be my preference?
The Dublin leg of the visit may well be confined to the Phoenix Park with stops at the American Embassy and Farmleigh to meet the Taoiseach. The visit to the Áras could be tricky, but I expect President Higgins to be savvy enough to know that there is no value in having unpleasant exchanges with her counterpart in what will, after all, be a brief 'courtesy' call. Trump can be quite affable in private.
He professes to get on well with such unlikely figures as North Korea's infamous Kim Jong-un and socialist New York mayor Zohran Mamdani. He likes to like his counterparts and likes them to appear to like him. Those who might want Trump to be put to rights on key issues will likely be disappointed.
Comparisons with the approaches taken by Canada's Mark Carney - who recently walked away from trade talks - and Spain's Pedro Sánchez - who has a frosty relationship with Trump - are misplaced. Those are far bigger countries with more strings to their bow. Besides, Canada is almost certainly beavering away behind the scenes to smooth things out with its southern neighbor before the economic cost of their recent falling out spirals.
By now it should be abundantly clear that Trump is not for turning on a lot of things. Most countries aspire to a quiet life with him, hoping to sit out these years with their interests intact. Ireland is no exception. We have an abiding interest in maintaining a smooth bilateral relationship with the United States.
The most important thing is that the visit goes by without incident. There will be relief if Trump leaves Clare with the impression that 'the Irish really like me'. In the grand scheme of things, the truth doesn't matter
Donald Trump Ireland Doonbeg State Visit Diplomacy Economic Relations European Union Security Golf Bilateral Affairs Michael Martin Simon Harris Ursula Von Der Leyen António Costa
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