US Election: Donald Trump's clean sweep of battleground states makes nonsense of knife-edge prediction
US Election: Trader Walter Lundon shows off his shirt featuring US president-elect Donald Trump on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Photograph: Timothy A Clary/AFP via Getty Imagesrights ; and his strong showing with the Latino and black communities effectively made a nonsense of the knife-edge race polls told us to expect.-leaning state of Iowa. A loss in Iowa would “cut Trump’s path to victory off at the knees,” it was claimed.
Alas, to no avail. A seminal problem seems to be the fact that many Trump voters have seldom or never voted in the past. A quarter of the votes he garnered in 2020 were from people who had not voted in 2016. These voters and their preferences appear to have gone undetected once again. Juxtaposed to this epic fail on the part of pollsters were the financial betting markets, which zeroed in on a likely Trump victory days, even weeks, in advance. Polymarket, one of the best known, gave Trump a 60 per cent chance of winning the day before the vote. Others had Trump at an even shorter price. It seems the old Watergate adage of “following the money” proved right in the end.
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