The Good Party, once the hope of Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s foes, has faded
, in Turkish) Party. Two years ago, having broken off from Turkey’s main nationalist bloc, the party had a full head of steam, polling at nearly 20%. The opposition alliance it joined seemed poised to give Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, and his governing coalition a run for their money. But on the eve of local elections set for March 31st, Good is imploding. Support for the party has slipped to single digits.
Local elections in Turkey are as much about storm drains, bus service and patronage networks as they are about national politics. For Mr Imamoglu, a second term as mayor would be a stepping stone to taking over the, which is plagued by infighting between factions loyal to its new leader, Ozgur Ozel, and its former one, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Mr Imamoglu might then run for president in 2028.
The vote could also change Mr Erdogan’s retirement plans. He recently announced that his current term would be his last, inviting speculation about’s next leader. But Mr Erdogan, who less than two years ago swore he would not increase interest rates as long as he was in power, is not exactly a man of his word. Winning in Istanbul could embolden him to pursue his latest pet project, a new constitution, presumably designed to guarantee him another term.s fate.
As long as Mrs Aksener is in charge, say her associates, Good will continue to oppose Mr Erdogan. But a weak showing on March 31st may set the stage for a leadership challenge, a schism or both. Some Good politicians remain close to the Nationalist Movement Party , from which Good is descended, and which forms part of Mr Erdogan’s governing alliance. “Those people can easily shake hands with Erdogan,” says aninsider. “They don’t aspire to have popular support, but to have power.
The opposition faces a wider problem. “Many voters are convinced they cannot win elections,” says Seda Demiralp, an academic. A win for Mr Imamoglu could re-energise them. But some in Turkey think they will need a more thorough shake-up to mount a challenge to Mr Erdogan or his successor. “The opposition needs to be restructured,” says Bilge Yilmaz, a senior Good member.
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