Two bellwether constituencies that could predict who forms Ireland’s next Government

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Two bellwether constituencies that could predict who forms Ireland’s next Government
Fianna-FailSinn-FeinDublin-Bay-North-Constituency
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The departures of sitting TDs open up interesting opportunities in certain constituencies

Kathleen Funchion was elected as a MEP this summer, leaving Sinn Féin with a dilemma over how to replace here Carlow-KIlkenny for the next general election. Photograph: Alan Betsonhousing crisis

But if there are two potential bellwether constituencies that could offer a sense of the shape of the next Dáil, they may well beYahya Sinwar profile: The hardliner who has become the new leader of HamasBroad national trends in party support may be better reflected as voters consider fresh faces on ballot papers in these constituencies than would be the case if the incumbents with existing personal votes were running.

Coolock-based Sinn Féin TD Denise Mitchell – who is expected to run – should hold her seat regardless. She stormed to victory as the party’s lone 2020 candidate in the constituency with 21,344 first-preference votes – the highest number of any candidate in the country. Assuming O’Callaghan and the three main parties hold what they have, it will be a scrap for the fifth seat.

In Carlow-Kilkenny housing is obviously an important issue in places such as Kilkenny city and commuter belt towns in Carlow, as is support for farmers in rural areas. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have traditionally been strong here, battling for dominance over the years.

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Fianna-Fail Sinn-Fein Dublin-Bay-North-Constituency Carlow-Kilkenny-Constituency

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