Confusion over the disposition of Ukraine’s forces, the pace of their advance and the direction of the country’s main effort is testimony to Ukraine’s success in keeping its plans and movements under wraps. Even seasoned experts are still guessing
Russian military bloggers sounded the alarm on Telegram, a social-media app, as Ukraine committed armoured vehicles in larger quantities than seen for months. Ukraine is probably now working its way through the first line of Russia’s defence in the sector, suggests Gustav Gressel of, a think-tank. Progress is slow because of minefields. More obstacles and entrenchments will follow if Ukraine wants to proceed south to the port cities of Berdyansk and Mariupol, two potential targets.
But what is clear is that Ukraine is probing not only there, but across the entirety of a front that spans more than 1,000km. Picture the Russian force as a long line, with one end at Kherson in the south, Russia’s left flank, and the other at Luhansk in the north-east. Our analysis of, which show the fires that result from shelling and strikes, indicates that June 6th was one of the most intense days since the war began, with most of the fires in currently Russian-held areas.
Moreover, Russia is increasingly distracted by raids even farther to the north of the established front lines. In recent weeks, Ukraine-backed militia have conducted brazen raids into Russia’s Belgorod province, forcing Russia to devote resources and attention to a part of the border that was previously quiet. On June 5th the Russian Volunteer Corps, one of those militias, said it had killed a Russian colonel in one such raid.
Meanwhile, fighting has not ceased in the east. On June 5th Ms Maliar, playing down the eye-catching developments in Novodonetske, said that Bakhmut was still the “epicentre of hostilities”. Ukraine was advancing on a “fairly broad front” there, she claimed, capturing the commanding heights around the town. There was also fighting towards Soledar, to its north, suggesting that Ukraine might hope to encircle Bakhmut.
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