Neither side has committed its reserves and the most important fighting may not occur for another week or so
is now into its second week. Its shape is gradually becoming clearer. One long-standing axis points east, at the area around the bloodily contested town of Bakhmut and in Luhansk province. A new one aims south and south-east from Velyka Novosilka and Vuhledar in Donetsk province. And a third has opened in the south, where Ukrainian troops are battling their way south around the town of Orikhiv in Zaporizhia province, which forms the central part of the war’s long front line.
The scale of the deployment along the Tokmak axis—and the town’s strategic role as both a rail hub and a gateway to strike at Russia’s main road to Crimea—suggest that it might grow into the main push. But most of the attacks so far have been conducted with Ukrainian units that were already in place and are aimed at identifying weaknesses in the Russian line, rather than breaking through with overwhelming force.
Denys Yaroslavsky, a special-forces officer fighting north of Bakhmut, reports a big increase in the use of drones there. Apart from Lancet strike drones, capable of destroying tanks and artillery systems, Russian forces have acquired significant numbers of commercial Chinese drones, he says. Mr Yaroslavsky is confident that Ukraine will continue to close the circle around Bakhmut. “It’s hard going, but we are moving constantly.
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