The war in Ukraine could last until 2024 as forces on both sides are even and neither Russia or Ukraine are in a position to 'perform a knock-out blow on the other', an expert has said
he expected the war to conclude in Ukrainian victory by mid-2023, with Vladimir Putin increasingly isolated, his troops suffering low morale and Ukraine increasingly well equipped.
The conflict will be characterised by large-scale offensives and counteroffensives during the summer as the winter will be needed by both sides to replenish and retrain, the RUSI expert said. According to Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at London-based think-tank Chatham House, the counteroffensive is a “process of erosion and corrosion of Russia’s military capability”, which could see its forces being forced to withdraw “rather than Ukrainian forces taking casualties and damage in winkling them out of every fortified position”.
What could be pushing them to join the frontline could be “Russia’s own organisations for making sure they are more likely to be shot if they run away by their own side than they are by staying on the frontline, which you know is absolutely classic Russian practice,” Mr Giles added.
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