The US Dollar (via the DXY Index) is teetering along a key support level, its daily 21-EMA (one-month moving average). If the DXY Index closes below its daily 21-EMA for the first time since June 7, it may signal a deeper retracement.
With risk appetite improving and energy prices pulling back, USD/JPY rates have experienced a bit of weakness over the past week. The pair never quite reached the equidistant measured move from the late-June/early-July symmetrical triangle range at 139.74, suggesting near-term exhaustion. Today’s candlestick is taking the shape of a bearish outside engulfing bar, hinting at further downside. Momentum is eroding, with the pair below its daily 5- and 8-EMA .
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USD/JPY price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
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