Negotiations between the United States and Iran show increased optimism, with a potential framework agreement including a 60-day ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, though no final deal has been confirmed yet.
Mark Weiss stressed that there was still no deal and no confirmation from the parties that a final agreement had been reached on a text.
However, he noted there is more optimism now than at any time in the past regarding the ongoing negotiations. Statements from the Iranian foreign minister and the Pakistani prime minister, who are involved in these negotiations, have been released, confirming that a deal with the USA is close. Mr Weiss reiterated that there was still no deal and still no confirmation from the sides that a final agreement has been agreed to on a text.
According to Newstalk, a framework agreement is being discussed under which a 60-day ceasefire will be observed. The Strait of Hormuz will be opened quickly, as will the US lifting its sanctions on Iranian ports. During this 60-day ceasefire, negotiations will take place on more contentious issues, such as Iran's nuclear enriched substances, what will happen to them, Iran's future capacity to enrich uranium, and issues regarding Lebanon and Iranian proxies.
It is absolutely critical for the Iranian regime to secure the release of frozen funds to help the Iranian economy and the regime itself. Only when Iran has implemented concrete measures on questions such as removing nuclear enriched substances will further steps be taken. While Israel and most Western intelligence agencies believe that Iran is moving toward having nuclear weapons, Iran has consistently stated it has no such aspirations.
The emerging deal may also address the situation in Lebanon, including whether Iran will pressure Hezbollah not to launch projectiles into Israel proper, though they could continue fighting Israeli troops in Lebanon. The key question is what the emerging US-Iran deal will say about Lebanon and the continuing Israeli troop presence in South Lebanon along the northern border with Israel
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