Predictions in war are always risky, but the tide seems to have turned. Russia can end this conflict any time it chooses—but peace will not be on the terms Vladimir Putin originally envisaged
many excuses Vladimir Putin has given for invading the country next door is that Ukraine and Russia are “one nation”, which should be united under his benign rule. “Do you still think that?” asked Ukraine’s president, as his troops swept thousands of Russian invaders from Kharkiv province this week. Volodymyr Zelensky’s triumphant sarcasm was justified.
Ukraine’s battlefield advances rest on two pillars; materiel and men. In hardware it has an ever-increasing edge. America and other friendly states have sent it rockets with enough range and accuracy to shift the terms of engagement. Ukraine can see and reliably hit enemy ammunition dumps, command centres and logistics nodes far behind the front lines; Russia cannot. Russia’s supposed air superiority has been suppressed by mobile air defences.
Victory for Ukraine is not yet certain, but a path is discernible. Evicting Russia entirely from Ukraine will be hard. It will mean pushing it out of territory where it is far better dug in and organised than in Kharkiv. A general collapse of the Russian forces cannot be ruled out, but is improbable.
Momentum in war can be self-sustaining. If Ukrainians in occupied towns believe that the invaders are there to stay, some may eventually acquiesce or even collaborate. If they think the Russians will be booted out in a few months, they have the opposite incentive: resisters will expect to be on the winning side; collaborators, to be locked up. So the more stolen land Russia loses, the harder it will find it to hold on to the rest.
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